What Role Will the EU Play in the U.S.-China Rivalry?
This educational program, developed by The Association of Foreign Press Correspondents (AFPC-USA) in partnership with the Hinrich Foundation, provided foreign correspondents with the opportunity to learn from Stephen Olson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation about the role of the European Union in the U.S.-China rivalry.
Olson described for foreign correspondents the main points of a recent article titled “EU holds the key to US-China rivalry.”
Renewing a “united front” with America's allies to counter China has been a top priority for the Biden administration. The position Europe takes will determine the effectiveness of any U.S. strategy. But while the U.S. and the EU have had a close working partnership, their interests, and viewpoints are far from identical. During this educational program, we reviewed, analyzed, and decoded the perspectives and priorities of the EU and the U.S. toward China in terms of how to manage the rise of China.
Stephen Olson
The educational program took place on June 1 and was moderated by Patrícia Vasconcellos, a board member of the Club of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States and White House correspondent for Brazilian TV network SBT. The Association of Foreign Press Correspondents (AFPC-USA) is solely responsible for the definition and development of this program.
Olson is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. Over the course of his more than 30-year international career, Olson has lived and worked in Asia, the Middle East, and the United States, holding senior executive positions in the private sector, international organizations, government, and academia. He began his career in Washington, DC as a U.S. trade negotiator, serving as a member of the US negotiating team during NAFTA and the US-Canada FTA. He went on to serve as President of the Pacific Basin Economic Council in Hong Kong. He subsequently became Vice-Chairman at the Cairo-based ARTOC Group for Investment and Development. He has also held Visiting Professor positions at various universities. In his current position at the Hinrich Foundation, Olson conducts analysis and research on global trade and investment issues, including US-China relations, global trade architecture, and sustainable trade.
Below, international correspondents will find a summary of the most important takeaways from the presentation.
Olson gives an overview of the recent U.S. policies comparing the previous administration with the current one in terms of how the U.S. is managing the growing influence of China in different parts of the world. “President Biden came to office with an effort to restore traditional U.S. alliances and confront China”, says Olson, arguing that a strategy for the Biden administration is to build a more united front to push back in areas of common concern with China. “It is not clear to me when or if we might see a significant improvement. The focus on the EU is a sensible recognition of the critical balancing role that the European Union plays” he says.
While the EU takes positions that could be interpreted as sitting on the fence, Olson also argues: ”This is an ironic situation in which the most important rivalry taking place in the Indo-Pacific region could be significantly impacted by decisions that are being taken in Brussels.”
He explains that the U.S. and the EU have a close relationship but the views on China are not identical.
CAN THE EU TILT THE SCALES?
Olson says that focusing on the European Union is a sensible recognition of the critical balancing position Europe occupies.
He explains that sharper distinctions between the U.S. and the EU arise over how best to manage China’s rise.
Another argument is that the EU has been more inclined to thread the needle.
DIVERGENT VOICES WITHIN THE EU
Olson gave at least two examples of EU countries that journalists and the public should pay attention to regarding policies toward China.
He said that Germany under Angela Merkel put business first in its relationship with China. “Even with the frustration of the United States, Germany chose not to rock the boat with China,” he says, arguing that it is not clear yet whether Olaf Scholz will be more like Merkel or not.
Another country to keep an eye on is Italy. “Italy was the only G7 country to sign up to the Belt and Road project” Olson remembered.
EU ROLE IS NOT LOST ON BEIJING
Olson says neither the U.S. nor China has played their cards perfectly.
He argues that Cbina tries to triangulate its interests.
Olson also remembers that a greater impediment at the moment is the war in Ukraine making this conflict “existential for the European Union.”
The United States, according to him, has not helped its case.
The EU, on the other hand, lacks coordination and consultation.
CAN THE U.S. AND THE EU GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER?
Olson acknowledges that a bilateral relationship might never be seamless but the crucial question is whether they act in convergence or divergence on key issues.
BRICS AND UKRAINE
On BRICS and U.S.-EU-China relations: “We are seeing a large group of countries staying in the middle ground despite the American and Chinese efforts to gain allies.”
On Ukraine: Olson says he does not think in any case that there will be a rollback in the U.S. and EU relationship: “Even if they don’t agree I don’t see this impacting their economic relationship. I think it’s steady, it is secure.”
