The Future of Global Trade: Supply Chains, Geopolitics, and Economic Resilience

On Tuesday, August 5, 2025, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States hosted an educational program in partnership with DHL Group featuring Tim Robertson, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, the air and ocean freight division of the Group. 

With Robertson’s extensive experience and strategic perspective, this session offered foreign journalists an opportunity to learn geopolitical shifts and global tensions are reshaping trade landscapes, transportation routes, and market access; about the resilience and vulnerabilities of global supply chains, particularly in a post-pandemic world marked by global conflicts and economic instability; the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policy and its direct implications for cross-border logistics and international commerce, and more.

This educational program was moderated by Entravision journalist Stephanie Ochoa, who previously received a Professional Excellence Award from AFPC-USA.

AFPC-USA is solely responsible for the content of this educational program. Below, foreign journalists can read the takeaways from this educational program.

Ochoa opened the conversation by framing August 5 as a “crucial moment” for U.S. trade policy, noting that a new set of tariffs set to begin in just “48 hours” would reshape how global commerce operates. She asked Robertson for his perspective, especially amid the political and economic shifts currently underway.

Robertson explained that he represents a division of DHL Group, “the world’s leading logistics company,” with operations in more than 220 countries and territories and over 600,000 employees. “Global logistics is our passion,” he said, underscoring DHL’s role in enabling supply chains for clients of all sizes and sectors.

He walked listeners through DHL’s structure—highlighting their asset-light model in the Global Forwarding division, which covers air, ocean, and ground transport. He pointed out that DHL offers “highly standardized transport solutions,” but also caters to niche demands through “sector-specific” industrial projects.

Turning to Ochoa’s question about the state of global trade, Robertson described the moment as a “golden age of uncertainty.” He outlined three major challenges: cost structures, complexity, and uncertainty.

He acknowledged that “uncertainty is starting to abate,” as new trade deals bring clarity, which in turn may prompt investment after months of hesitation. “The more certainty you can provide,” Robertson explained, “the quicker you can make your investments.”

Tim Robertson

Still, complexity is rising. Customers must now navigate “constant and continual updating on tariff rates,” including retaliatory measures. Compliance enforcement is also “at an all-time high,” making quality control in trade operations more vital than ever.

As for costs, Robertson warned they’re already becoming visible in company earnings reports. While some increases may be absorbed within the supply chain, others “will be passed on to consumers.” He stressed that companies are now strategizing around how to manage these rising expenses.

Ochoa noted DHL’s vast global transport services—“air freight, ocean freight, road freight”—and highlighted how many businesses and workers rely on them. She asked Robertson whether the industry is already reacting to the looming August 7 tariff policy, or if a larger shift had already begun.

Robertson responded by going back to the pandemic, which he said placed “a spotlight” on global supply chains and made them a household topic. COVID-19 revealed the essential role of logistics in sustaining commerce, and businesses that had “resilient” supply chains—those that could flex and adapt to shocks—were better positioned to “gain market share.” 

He emphasized that supply chains are no longer just logistics but “a negotiating chip” in trade deals, and the industry, shaped by pandemic challenges, is “well prepared” for the current volatility. DHL’s asset-light model allows it to “flex up and flex down” as needed, a key advantage amid rising tariff complexity.

Robertson singled out customs and trade compliance as a crucial issue for smaller importers, saying that while customs used to be “relatively simple,” it’s now much more complicated with fluctuating duty rates and regulations. Small and midsize businesses now lean more heavily on DHL Global Forwarding to maintain “highly compliant and seamless” trade flows.

Ochoa circled back to the pandemic, referencing a past article authored by Robertson, in which he said COVID-19 exposed how “vulnerable our global supply chains are.” She asked whether lessons had been learned and if the world is moving in the right direction.

Robertson responded affirmatively: “The answer is yes.” He emphasized DHL’s broader mission: “connecting people, improving lives”—a purpose brought to life during the pandemic, when DHL delivered over 2 billion vaccine doses to 170 countries. In some cases, “improving lives” became “saving lives.”

He reiterated DHL’s “obligation to nations, to our customers, to our employees” to keep trade flowing despite today’s complexity. One of the clearest post-pandemic shifts is the movement toward supply diversification—a strategy he described as “China plus one” or “China plus X.” Companies are spreading their sourcing across markets like Vietnam, Thailand, Mexico, and India to reduce reliance on China.

Technology is also playing a larger role post-pandemic. DHL is leveraging AI and data analytics to guide decision-making and support clients. He highlighted a platform called myDHLi, which uses predictive tools to optimize delivery routes and shipment timing.

However, diversification brings its own complexity. Moving from China to Southeast Asia or Latin America, for instance, requires examining more than just production capabilities. “Transportation capacity, physical infrastructure, labor markets, and regulatory environments” all become critical considerations for choosing the best source origin.

Robertson ended by pointing out a persistent vulnerability: visibility beyond Tier 1 suppliers. While many companies now have strong oversight of immediate vendors, visibility into second-, third-, or fourth-tier suppliers remains a “blind spot.” DHL offers tools like an order management system to help close that gap, but it remains an area of concern.

Ochoa shifted the discussion toward global infrastructure and geopolitical tensions, asking how conflicts—such as the U.S.-China trade friction and conflicts in Eastern Europe—have reshaped trade routes and partner priorities for global logistics firms like DHL.

Stephanie Ochoa

Robertson acknowledged that geopolitical disruptions are not new to the industry, but they now require an even greater degree of agility and anticipation. Conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have significantly “reshaped global air networks and global ocean freight networks,” resulting in longer lead times and forcing businesses to rethink how they manage inventory and supply chain timing.

However, he emphasized that it’s the U.S.-China trade tension—particularly around tariffs—that has had an even more profound impact. These tensions have pushed many companies toward "China plus one" or "China plus X" strategies, diversifying production beyond China.

For DHL, he said, this shift has created “a lot of opportunities”. The company has worked with clients to relocate manufacturing operations—“from China into Mexico”, for example—and has helped them build new logistics pipelines into the U.S. He shared a striking example: when a customer in Mexico realized that tariffs could affect exports to both the U.S. and Canada, DHL developed a novel ocean freight route directly from Mexico to Canada “within a matter of 24 hours.” This, he said, demonstrated just how “highly dynamic” and flexible modern supply chains must be.

Ochoa followed up by pointing out that Mexico holds a unique position—benefiting from proximity to the U.S. while grappling with internal challenges like insecurity. She asked what DHL’s biggest challenge has been in the Americas, even before the August 7 tariff changes.

Robertson responded that the primary challenge is actually “taking advantage of all the opportunities we see.” DHL has been deeply rooted in the region for decades, with teams well-versed in operating amid volatility and risk. He noted that DHL recently launched a “geographic tailwinds” program to focus investment in regions most likely to benefit from shifting trade dynamics and that shows bigger growth globally.

In the Americas, he said the company is particularly focused on Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. In Brazil, despite some “current challenges” in U.S. relations, DHL is seeing strong trade growth—especially from Asia-Pacific and Europe into Brazil. He mentioned new shipping routes from Europe via Hong Kong to Brazil, underscoring the continued emergence of nontraditional trade lanes.

Colombia is next on his agenda, he added, as DHL explores how to better capitalize on opportunities there.

But Mexico, he emphasized, is “a real shining star.” DHL has seen 20 to 30 percent growth in core services there. Mexico plays a dual role—acting as a major exporter to Latin America while also importing heavily from India, Vietnam, Thailand, and China. He highlighted a recent operation where DHL Global Forwarding ran 10 air freight charters from Mexico to Brazil to help a pharmaceutical customer launch production.

In closing, Robertson called Mexico a “critical part” of DHL’s growth strategy, not only for North America, but as a rising hub for South and Central America as well. Despite ongoing tensions with the U.S., Mexico is poised to remain “a major trading partner.”

Ochoa brought up a term used by Robertson in a recent article—“omni-shoring”—and asked whether it referred to regionalization in the Americas, especially since the term is less commonly heard than nearshoring or offshoring.

Robertson clarified that omni-shoring refers to the strategy of using “multiple distribution channels to serve end customers or the end markets.” This strategy has become significantly more complex in the current environment, especially with changes like the abolition of de minimis thresholds, which previously allowed for duty-free treatment of certain low-value shipments entering the U.S.

He explained that modern consumers expect flexibility—they want to buy online from various platforms and also shop in-store or compare products across channels. This demand creates a multi-layered distribution requirement, and in this context, omni-shoring “is no less important” than traditional sourcing strategies—arguably, it has become even more essential.

Ochoa then pivoted to a broader issue, asking how DHL is adjusting to a reality where “trade policy is increasingly used as a tool of foreign policy or even immigration policy,” particularly in countries like Mexico. She noted that immigration, security, foreign affairs, and trade are now “in the same basket.”

Robertson called it a “fantastic and insightful question” and noted that in his decades at DHL, there has “never been a time” when non-market forces played such a dominant role. Where once market-driven decisions steered their business, today “government action is equally important.”

He stressed that bilateral engagement with policymakers is now a core part of their strategy. “We believe that engagement, bidirectional engagement, is incredibly important.” DHL has built credibility and trust, he said, giving them the ability to influence policy in constructive ways—particularly citing collaborations with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to shape cargo security policies that balance security goals with operational feasibility.

Robertson argued that current trade and tariff tensions makes this kind of proactive, two-way dialogue with global policymakers even more critical—not just in Washington, D.C., but also in Berlin, Beijing, and Mexico City. He warned that supply chains have become a “bargaining tool” in geopolitical negotiations, and if logistics voices like DHL’s aren’t present at the table, the industry’s needs may be excluded from final decisions.

Ochoa then posed a forward-looking question: whether the era of global trade liberalization is over or simply being reshaped—and what that means for global logistics.

Robertson responded optimistically, saying, “I am hopeful that this is being reshaped.” He pointed out that only 14% of global imports go into the U.S., which, while still the world’s “largest single import destination,” leaves a large portion of global trade open to development elsewhere. He suggested that the “wait and see strategy” in the U.S., driven by uncertainty, is causing companies to delay investments—unlike in regions like Latin America or Asia, where businesses are moving forward.

Robertson gave the example of DHL’s aggressive expansion plans in Brazil, where the company aims to triple the size of its business and invest over $200 million to build temperature-controlled freight solutions to support the life sciences sector. He warned that the U.S. risks falling behind if it remains overly cautious: “The rest of the world is not waiting.”

Ochoa then asked if this reshaping of global trade is creating structural costs for logistics operators. Robertson agreed, especially in the short to medium term, explaining that newer trade routes don’t have the same volume as traditional ones, making unit costs higher. For instance, air freight from Vietnam to the U.S. is more expensive than the same route from China due to differences in scale and infrastructure.

Turning to the Americas, Ochoa asked how supply chain resilience is playing out, particularly given that earlier disruptions—such as those stemming from the Russia–Ukraine war—were highly visible in global media but less so regionally.

Robertson said that regionalization strategies have helped buffer the Americas from the worst disruptions. He cited the approach of “make where you sell and source where you make” as one that has already taken hold in the region over the past decade. Companies that adopted this early were better “insulated” from volatility in Europe or the Middle East.

Robertson emphasized that resilient supply chains are not just protective—they are also strategic advantages. A company that can keep its products on the shelf during disruption can “gain market share” over competitors who can’t. “They become enablers for companies to gain market share during disruptive times,” he said, noting that DHL positions itself as that kind of partner.

Ochoa turned the conversation to DHL’s sustainability and innovation goals, pointing to its ambitious net-zero emissions target by 2050. She asked how that could be possible, especially in a global political climate where, as she put it, DHL’s aims may seem to move in the “opposite direction” of the current U.S. administration.

Robertson affirmed that sustainability is a “fundamental imperative,” not only for DHL but for the entire logistics industry, which he acknowledged as a “significant emitter of CO2.” He said this commitment is not new—DHL has been a “front runner” in green logistics for over a decade. He cited specific milestones, including the introduction of GoGreen Plus, the first carbon-neutral air and ocean freight service using true insetting rather than just offsetting emissions. DHL is also a market leader in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchases, and offers a book-and-claim system that allows customers to reduce and claim their own emissions impact.

Robertson noted that all of DHL’s new warehouses and facilities are being built to be carbon neutral, and that the company is part of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) and has been meeting all its interim benchmarks. But he emphasized that achieving net-zero is not something DHL can do alone: “Our customers… our suppliers… and governments… all need to come along with this journey.”

The discussion then shifted to AI and automation, with Ochoa noting public curiosity (and anxiety) around how these technologies will impact jobs. She asked which innovations DHL finds most transformative for the future of global freight forwarding.

Robertson responded enthusiastically, saying he’s “incredibly excited” about how AI can improve both customer experience and employee experience. He highlighted a soon-to-be-launched tool: an AI-powered customs agent, set for internal rollout this month and public availability by October or November. This agent will assist both clients and DHL staff in classifying goods faster, flagging issues, and proactively managing shipments: “Hey, keep an eye on this,” the AI might suggest to an operator, referencing packages with prior FDA complications. Robertson sees this as an example of technology supporting—not replacing—frontline workers, allowing them to spend more time focused on value-added customer service.

Asked whether digital transformation is merely a tool for efficiency, or whether it could also drive transparency and trust, Robertson said it does both. He framed it as central to DHL’s “digital by default” ethos and explained that advanced technology will help DHL meet not just emissions goals but also its aggressive growth targets.

He provided a compelling example from a longstanding customer who, in the wake of COVID, built a digital twin of their supply chain. This virtual model allows for scenario-based planning—and now, AI integration has made it even more powerful. “When a tariff rate changes… or a transportation cost changes, they can quickly update their digital twin” to help guide real-time decision-making. According to Robertson, this is a blueprint for how AI can support resilient, agile supply chains.

As the conversation drew to a close, Ochoa posed a question from the audience about the media’s role in shaping public understanding of trade wars, tariffs, and economic tensions.

Robertson offered a thoughtful response, suggesting that the media plays a critical role, but one that hinges on education and access to expert insight. That’s why, he said, DHL invests in outreach efforts like this one—to ensure journalists are better informed about the realities of supply chains and can explain concepts like resiliency and global trade dynamics more accurately: “It’s about educating the media… so that they can report with a really informed view.”

Ochoa, noting her own base in Washington D.C., pivoted the conversation toward policy. She asked whether governments across the Americas were doing the right things—or the wrong ones—when it comes to strengthening trade infrastructure and economic resilience.

Robertson declined to label policy actions as right or wrong, but emphasized that productive, two-way dialogue is what makes the difference. “Where we have intense bidirectional engagement, we almost always find that those administrations… they’re listening,” he said. He stressed that policymakers want to understand how supply chains affect both economic development and consumer impact, and he urged continued cooperation: “Speak to the experts. That’s mission critical.”

Another audience question: What is your greatest fear and biggest hope for what comes next in global trade?

Robertson said his top concern was uncertainty—specifically, the hesitation it creates for businesses making investment decisions. He stopped short of calling it a “fear,” but stressed that resolving uncertainty is “absolutely essential” to forward momentum.

On the hopeful side, Robertson offered a powerful reminder of DHL’s guiding principle: “Connecting people and improving lives.” He sees global trade as one of the greatest engines of human progress, noting that it has “undoubtedly been a major driver of prosperity for billions.” Even if global trade is being reshaped, he said, his hope is that the world continues to embrace its benefits—not just for business, but for the “prosperity of humanity.”