What to Know About a New Study Outlining Climate Change's Impact on Air Quality

A new report from the nonprofit First Street Foundation highlights the potential impact of climate change on air quality in the United States, indicating a decline through 2054.

Despite decades of progress in achieving cleaner air, the rise in climate change-related events, such as large wildfires, heatwaves, and drought, is contributing to a growing "climate penalty" affecting air quality. The effects of this penalty are not uniform across the country, as revealed by hyperlocal air quality models that show variations down to the property level between 2024 and 2054.

The research, based on three peer-reviewed studies, reveals that climate change is increasing the prevalence of two harmful air pollutants: particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone. PM2.5, emitted by vehicles, power plants, and wildfires, can pose significant health risks by entering the lungs and bloodstream. The West, particularly California, is expected to experience a notable impact, with wildfires becoming more frequent and severe.

The study identifies cities like Fresno, Sacramento, San Francisco, and Seattle as air quality hot spots due to wildfires and tropospheric ozone pollution. Future projections suggest a nearly 10% increase in PM2.5 levels over the next 30 years, potentially erasing the air quality gains made in the last two decades. Unlike pollutants from cars and factories, climate-related deterioration in air quality poses a more challenging problem to solve, requiring global emissions cuts.

The population exposed to "dangerous" days on the air quality index is projected to grow by about 13% between 2024 and 2054, affecting 11.2 million people. Additionally, the population exposed to "hazardous" (maroon) days on the air quality index is expected to increase by 27% over the same period. The report emphasizes that the climate penalty associated with increasing air pollution levels is a clear signal of the direct impact of climate change on the environment.

To address these concerns, the First Street Foundation has translated the findings into risk levels known as "Air Factor" for individual properties in the U.S. These ratings will be made available on large real estate listing sites, allowing individuals to assess the air quality risks associated with specific locations.