Ukraine's Fate and the U.S. Election: A Perspective from the Front Lines

People in the United States aren’t the only ones stressing about the upcoming election. “The conversations here are about your elections,” says Iryna Krykunenko of the HALO Trust in Ukraine. “You can find many people in Kyiv who feel that the destiny of Ukraine depends on the American election.”

When I visited Krykunenko in Ukraine last July, I noticed a sense of defiance and fortitude. But upon my return in September, the mood had shifted. A phrase that’s become a meme in Kyiv captures the sentiment: “We can get back lost territory, but we can never get back lost lives.” 

This change has heightened interest in the U.S. elections. Some yearn for a settlement to end the suffering, while others, as Krykunenko observes, “Will never be okay with a negotiated settlement because they don’t want their loved ones to have died in vain.” Still others told me that as long as Russia is on Ukrainian territory, even if the guns fall silent because of a negotiated “peace,” Russia will continue to undermine Ukraine by other means, making the word “peace” a joke.

Krykunenko, with her experience at HALO—a landmine clearance organization—views Ukraine through a specific lens.  She explains that as long as the war continues, so too will the Russians’ practice of planting landmines on an industrial scale.  Already Ukraine is the most heavily mined country in the world.  

Clearing landmines in Ukraine is a long and grueling task. About 30% of Ukraine's territory is contaminated with mines and unexploded ordnance, and around 15% of farmland has been rendered unusable. Many of the landmines are crafted to evade detection, making clearing them even more dangerous and time-consuming.

Krykunenko notes, “It’s super tricky even to guess how long it will take us to have our country cleared from landmines. The most optimistic estimate is ten years, but some argue it could take 700 years.”

For farmers in mined areas like Mykolaiv or Kharkiv, it’s devastating. “They risk their lives, and they’ve lost their livelihoods for years,” Krykunenko laments. 

She also knows mined farmland is catastrophic for the economy. Forty percent of the country’s export revenue traditionally comes from farming. Mined farmland will also translate into more food insecurity in countries such as Egypt, Yemen, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.

Landmines are a nightmare for Ukraine, but there’s at least one small piece of good news relating to the US election. According to Chris Whatley, Executive Director of the HALO Trust (USA), “Landmine clearance is one of those rare bipartisan issues in Washington. US support for these programs grew both in the Trump and Biden administrations. Both parties understand that it is in our interest for war ravaged countries to be able to plant their fields and rebuild their economies so they can move away from foreign assistance.” 

Krykunenko aimed her parting words at people in the West: “It’s easy for the rest of the world to want to help when things are going well. The hardest part is when they aren’t—and that’s when support is needed most.” She hopes that the world remains committed as Ukraine continues its fight for survival, especially in uncertain times where American elections play a pivotal role.