The Public's Perception of AI-Generated Misinformation Spells Trouble for the 2024 Election
As the United States gears up for the 2024 presidential election, Senate, and House elections, there is a growing concern among Americans about the role of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to impact the electoral process. A recent Axios-Morning Consult AI poll has shed light on the public's perception of AI-generated misinformation, its influence on election outcomes, and the broader implications of AI in the electoral landscape.
The poll's findings reveal that 53 percent of respondents believe that misinformation spread by AI will influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. This sentiment is not limited to a particular political demographic, as frequent viewers of Fox, CNN, and MSNBC all share this view. The fact that a majority of Americans express apprehension about AI's role in elections underscores the significance of this issue.
There continues to be a partisan divide amongst other issues regarding AI: Those who voted for former President Trump in the 2020 election are twice as likely as Biden voters to believe that AI will decrease their trust in election results. Among those who anticipate AI-driven misinformation affecting the election, 47 percent were Trump voters, while 27 percent were Biden voters. This discrepancy reflects the partisan divide present in the 2020 election where Trump, aided and abetted by colleagues and outside bad actors, attempted to delegitimize the 2020 election in favor of seizing power. Nearly 70 percent of Republicans believed that lie, and have likely lost faith in the health of American democracy as a whole.
Questions around the use of AI in election advertising yielded similar statistics as above: 35 percent of respondents believe that AI will decrease their trust in election advertising. Within this group, 42 percent were Trump voters, and 33 percent were Biden voters. This phenomenon is already affecting the 2024 election, suggesting a significant amount of the U.S. may not even know which information is currently coming from AI—another layer of complexity.
The poll also reveals that 35 percent of Democrats have "a lot" of trust in President Biden to oversee AI regulation, while 40 percent of Republicans who voted for Trump have "a lot" of trust in his handling of AI. These figures suggest that while there is some confidence in political leaders' ability to manage AI, America's confidence in political leaders has continued to plummet in recent years.
Beyond electoral concerns, the poll delves into broader perceptions of AI. One-third of adults say they are "very concerned" about AI development, indicating a significant level of apprehension about the technology's trajectory. Interestingly, 34 percent of respondents believe that humans are smarter than AI, compared to 22 percent who consider AI to be smarter. However, nearly two-thirds of respondents believe that humans will eventually lose control of AI. Of this group, 54 percent believe this point will be reached within the next five years, while 90 percent anticipate it within the next 25 years. This sense of impending loss of control over AI raises existential questions about the ethical and regulatory challenges posed by AI technologies.
The widespread belief that AI-generated misinformation could influence election outcomes underscores the need for vigilance, transparency, and responsible AI usage in the electoral process. Additionally, the broader concerns about AI development and control highlight the importance of establishing clear guidelines and regulations to ensure that AI technologies are harnessed for the benefit of society and democracy, rather than becoming a source of uncertainty and distrust. As the 2024 election approaches, addressing these concerns should be a top priority for policymakers, technologists, and citizens alike.
