Net Zero Plans Face Considerable Obstacles as the World Grapples with Climate Change

As countries worldwide commit to ambitious net zero targets, a new study led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) sheds light on the complex journey toward decarbonization.

Published in the journal One Earth, the study analyzes national climate strategies from 71 countries, providing unprecedented insight into their approaches to achieving net zero emissions. Led by lead author Harry Smith and co-author Dr. Naomi Vaughan, the research highlights the varied ambitions and challenges faced by nations as they navigate the transition to a carbon-neutral future.

Smith said:

"Net zero targets have rapidly become the new norm of national climate policy. They imply a need to compensate for the remaining residual emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal methods. Yet governments are only now exploring what this balance could or should be. High residual emissions, paired with greater deployment of carbon dioxide removal, may allow countries to retain or expand fossil fuel use and production. Given the limits of carbon dioxide removal, this risks the credibility of their target and may jeopardise global climate goals. Similarly, treating residual emissions as an inevitability, risks de-emphasising these emissions, locking-in high emitting activities and infrastructure, and locking-out other ways to reduce emissions.”

Key findings of the study reveal that while many countries aim to reach net zero by 2050, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles, particularly in sectors such as aviation, agriculture, and industry. These "hard-to-abate" sources of emissions pose significant technical challenges, limiting the potential for further reduction beyond a certain level.

Of particular concern is the agricultural sector, which is anticipated to be the largest contributor to residual emissions, especially from livestock farming. Despite its significant impact, progress in decarbonizing agriculture remains limited, with reductions averaging only 37% compared to other sectors like industrial emissions, which see a reduction of 70%.

The study also highlights disparities in ambition among countries, with some demonstrating greater commitment to emissions reduction than others. While countries like the UK and Spain aim for substantial reductions, others, such as Canada, adopt less ambitious scenarios that retain higher levels of fossil fuel use and production.

Importantly, the research underscores the need for increased scrutiny and transparency in reporting emissions and carbon removal efforts. By strengthening reporting requirements, countries can ensure greater accountability and transparency, thereby fostering a more informed and effective approach to emissions reduction.

Furthermore, the study calls for a reevaluation of which emissions are truly "difficult to decarbonize" and which could be addressed through changes in demand and investment in research and innovation. By prioritizing investments in sustainable solutions and fostering international collaboration, countries can overcome the challenges posed by residual emissions and accelerate progress toward net zero.

For journalists covering climate change and sustainability, understanding the complexities of net zero policies is crucial.

How Journalists Can Report on Net Zero Policies Effectively

Journalists should delve into the specific sectors identified as challenging to decarbonize by their respective countries. Understanding the technical barriers and policy implications for sectors like agriculture, aviation, and industry can provide valuable insights into the intricacies of net zero strategies. Investigating the varying levels of ambition among countries is essential for contextualizing climate policy discussions. Examining the factors influencing countries' emissions reduction targets and their approaches to addressing residual emissions can help journalists identify trends and disparities in global climate action.

Journalists also play a critical role in holding governments accountable for their climate commitments. Scrutinizing reporting mechanisms and advocating for greater transparency in emissions reporting can help ensure accountability and foster public trust in climate policies. Highlighting innovative solutions and technologies for decarbonizing challenging sectors can inspire public engagement and support for climate action. Journalists can spotlight initiatives that leverage research, innovation, and international collaboration to address residual emissions and accelerate progress toward net zero.