Migration is on the Rise as Climate Change Worsens: Can the World Cooperate?

A new paper published in the journal One Earth by a team of climate and social scientists from the universities of Wageningen, Exeter and Nanjing underscores the significance of the climate crisis’ impact on global migration. They say the "time is ripe to highlight the benefits of collaboration between nations and regions."

"Millions of people are projected to be displaced by sea-level rise in the next decades, and two billion could be exposed to extreme heat beyond their experience by the end of the century," said Professor Marten Scheffer, of Wageningen University.

He added:

"Ignoring or downplaying the inevitable global redistribution of people would lead to geo-political instability, and a polarised and fractured world. Instead, the international community must come together to rethink mobility and cultural integration to ensure a benign transition to this new world."

At the moment, the majority of global migration spurred by the global climate crisis has happened within countries as people leave areas with declining agricultural productivity or that are impacted by extreme weather events that have only become more common. The paper points out that a "skewed distribution of wealth and associated power" has adverse impacts on people looking to move, complicating their efforts both within and between states.

The paper recommends reforming the global food system, a massive undertaking supported by the movement of workers, would increase production while protecting natural environments. These environments stand a better chance if meat consumption is reduced in favour of plant-based diets.

"Playing up the social costs of migration appeals to national identity motivations, but fails to overcome problems from ageing populations," said Professor Neil Adger, who highlighted the importance of world leaders communicating the economic benefits and effective integration to their respective citizens. "Instead, leaders should focus on the economic and social benefits of new populations and effective integration, which benefits newcomers and original inhabitants alike. Every corner of the world needs to anticipate the coming climate crisis and promote the safe and beneficial movement of people as conditions change."

Climate change has increasingly factored into the reasons why people migrate, per the Migration Policy Institute. While economic reasons are still paramount, the organization notes that 50 percent of Central African respondents to a Mixed Migration Centre survey published in 2022 said the environment had affected their decision to move.

“Most disaster-related displacement is short term, but migration related to slow-onset climate change may be more permanent and possibly large-scale,” the organization said. “Sea-level rise, land degradation, coastal erosion, extreme temperature, and other gradual impacts of climate change can make entire areas (or in some cases, entire islands) unlivable, threaten the viability of rural livelihoods, and foster competition over resources.”