Information Warfare: a Threat to the West that Rivals Russia’s Nuclear Warheads

The Russian Federation cannot successfully compete militarily or economically with U.S. power. Ominously, however, there’s a weapon in Russia’s arsenal that may be a danger to the West comparable in severity to the danger posed by Russia's nuclear weapons. We’re talking information warfare.

In fact, information warfare may be an even greater threat. Unlike the use of nuclear weapons, nothing constrains the Russians from making maximum use of information-based warfare. Also, because for us it’s a blind spot, we’re doing little to defend against it.

By using information warfare as a core strategy, Russia could win its war in Ukraine. With influence operations Russia is already vigorously pursuing, it’s conceivable that Russia could convince the United States to withhold support for Ukraine.

“If Russia were to win in Ukraine because of the collapse of Western aid,” says Nataliya Bugayova from the Institute for the Study of War, “it would likely be because Russia managed to change America’s understanding of its own interests.”

Russia’s information-based warfare goes far beyond the words and concepts propagated by troll farms and social media. Bugayova says that the Kremlin makes a practice of using physical actions in the real world to support their propaganda efforts. One such example is Russia’s targeting of ports and grain storage facilities in Ukraine. 

The goal of this operation was to make Ukraine and the West appear responsible for food insecurity in countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. The operation was designed to create a wedge between the West and countries depending on Ukrainian grain.

When thinking about information warfare, we should look at the big picture, including how information warfare serves Russia’s strategic goals. Given that the Kremlin perceives the U.S. as the only sovereign country with the will and the capability to stand in Russia’s way, Russian information warfare aims at weakening the U.S. Sowing division in the U.S. is one of the tools for accomplishing this.

Experts who have studied the Russian approach to information warfare know that Russia has a deep understanding of the issues that divide us. The Russians know how to use social media to inflame all sides of any hot button issue. If you’ve ever wondered why we in the U.S. is so divided, keep in mind that fostering dissension and thus weakening us is a major goal of Russia’s information warfare.

Dissension isn’t the only goal. Bugayova adds that the Kremlin would like us to believe that the war is already lost. (It’s not.) They’d like us to believe that a ceasefire would be humane and right. (It would be a chance for Russia to rebuild.) They’d like us to believe that the West provoked the war. (It was entirely a war of choice for the Kremlin). Most of all, they’d like to convince us that Western aid should stop.

Bugayova summarizes: “If Russia wins in Ukraine because of the collapse of Western aid, it will be because Russia managed to shape Americans’ understanding of reality. Using information-based warfare, it will have stripped America of its will to act. It will have convinced the United States to choose to act against its interests and values without realizing that it is doing so.”

We need to recognize that information warfare is one of the very few ways, and certainly the easiest and fastest way, for Russia to gain the advantage in Ukraine. We need to be aware of the role it plays, and we need to up our game in resisting it.