Global Life Expectancy Expected to Increase Significantly by 2050, But With Health Challenges
The latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, published in The Lancet, reveal promising yet complex insights into global life expectancy trends. The study forecasts a notable increase in life expectancy worldwide by 2050, with males expected to gain 4.9 years and females 4.2 years. This upward trajectory is especially pronounced in regions with historically lower life expectancies, signifying a convergence of longevity across diverse populations.
These advancements are largely attributed to robust public health measures that have combated cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and various communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases. However, the study also underscores the evolving landscape of health challenges, with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) emerging as prominent concerns.
Shifts in disease burden towards NCDs, driven by factors like obesity, high blood pressure, poor diet, and smoking, are projected to shape the health landscape of the future. While more individuals are expected to live longer, the prevalence of NCDs suggests that a significant portion of their extended lifespan may be marred by health issues. This transition is reflected in the shift from years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLDs), indicating a rise in years spent in poor health.
The study forecasts that global life expectancy will rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050, accompanied by an increase in global healthy life expectancy (HALE) from 64.8 years to 67.4 years over the same period. These projections, derived from comprehensive analyses of cause-specific mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and other health metrics, highlight both progress and challenges in global health.
Dr. Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington, emphasizes the importance of narrowing health inequalities across different regions.
"In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen," said Murray. "This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa."
The study's findings echo those of the GBD 2021 risk factors study, underscoring the increasing burden of metabolic risk factors on global health. The rise in DALYs attributable to these factors underscores the urgency of proactive interventions to curb their impact.
Looking ahead, the study explores alternative scenarios to gauge the potential health outcomes of various public health interventions. While the "Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks" scenario shows the most significant reduction in disease burden, other scenarios focused on safer environments and improved childhood nutrition and vaccination also offer promising outcomes.
