Foreign Reaction and Outcomes of the U.S. Midterm Elections for America's Foreign Policy

PARIS—On a recent trip to Europe, we heard repeatedly a version of the same concern in Europe about the potentially catastrophic failure of American democracy. Uncharacteristically, we heard virtually similar refrains from the French, British and Germans alike. In a nutshell Europeans were asking, “America, are you ok?” 

In the weeks leading up to midterm elections in America, there was great interest in what would become of American leadership, democracy and bipartisan foreign policy. It came in conversation with waiters in the Paris cafes, who seemed oddly, but pleasantly, truly happy to see us. British hotel guests in Souillac in the south of France expressed the sentiment over breakfast. German friends echoed it as we walked their dog with them along the canal in Strasbourg, not far from the seat of the European Parliament in Alsace.

It took the form of incredulity about the popularity of Donald Trump, surprise over how many Americans believed election lies, bafflement over Covid 19 deniers and fear of a cold civil war unfolding in the States with attacks on political opponents rising--and not a small measure of horror over the evolution of a Republican Party, whose most extreme members and their militant MAGA base refused to accept the results of free and fair elections when the vote went against them.

American voters gave their answer this past week, and a relieved Europe exhaled. Foreign media covering the Midterm elections saw an example of U.S. democracy repairing itself and voters pulling back from the brink in a midterm election widely interpreted as an endorsement of stability, sanity and democracy. Overall, they rejected many erratic, election-denying candidates (though sadly, not all of them), put responsible officials in charge of vote counting in swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential elections and defended personal freedom, especially a woman’s right to choose.

The midterms were not just a test of American democracy, they were a test case of whether the U.S. will maintain its global leadership and demonstrate the power of democracy in defense of international alliances and the rules-based order in the world.

Projections are that Democrats won and will retain control in the U.S. Senate and that Republicans have taken control in the U.S. House by a very slim majority. The Democrats defied history and GOP predictions of a red wave—the sitting president usually loses many seats in the House during midterm elections. But this year Democrats overperformed and House control came down to a handful of seats in outstanding congressional elections as votes are still being counted in the days and weeks ahead.

To be sure, American democracy seems more stable and predictable after Tuesday’s election, for now. By and large, voters rejected election-deniers and Trump extremists, and the midterms experienced no significant fraud or violence.

Still, many nations may fairly wonder whether the jury is still out. The most common question I heard abroad when I talked about President Joe Biden and his engaged, reliable foreign policies, so far, was a nervous question from people in other countries: “Yes, ok, but will that last?”

For now, the answer seems to be yes The concern among America’s friends abroad is real, and Biden must continue to work with allies to bolster U.S. credibility and reliability after the often erratic and reckless foreign policy of the last president. Trump sharply criticized allies, coddled dictators, questioned the value of NATO and withdrew from American commitments—including the Iran nuclear deal—and has now announced his re-election this week.

“They’re very concerned that we are still the open democracy we’ve been and that we have rules and the institutions matter,” Biden acknowledged at a news conference last week before leaving on a global tour that includes a climate change summit in Egypt, a meeting with Southeast Asian nations in Cambodia and the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia.

He will be emphasizing his argument to allies and foes alike that America is back and will continue to engage constructively in the world on economic, humanitarian, social justice and security issues.

As foreign correspondents based in the U.S. have learned, there is still reason to be concerned about the state of democracy in America, a country that European nations and many more around the globe, look to often to set the standard. There was real anxiety that the midterms could further erode American leadership globally.

“In Europe we used to say we are a few years behind the U.S. When something happens in the U.S., it might happen where we are a few years later,” said Paul Mazet, 22, a masters student in history from southern France, speaking before the Nov. 8 midterm election in the U.S.

“And maybe President Biden has restored this sort of hope in the U.S. again, because with Trump, and even all these things happening in American society now, in the post-truth era, I feel there is a wide gap now between European nations and America. When I am talking with friends now about the U.S., it’s like we are now talking about a completely different country.”

Mazet and others saw the Jan. 6, 2021, violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, the undermining of U.S. elections, the attack on the husband of the speak of the House—and the disgraceful way some Republicans joked tastelessly about it—and they wondered about American values.

“It seems we are going in completely different ways as societies,” Mazet observed, citing the recent decision by the U.S. Supreme Court that overtured the Constitutional right to an abortion after nearly 50 years. “I know this is not all Americans who support these things,” he said. “But democracy seems like it’s falling apart in the U.S.”

Restoring confidence in U.S. democracy at home and abroad has been a key priority for Biden. His challenge globally is to reassert U.S. leadership and authority.

The good news is that, even with an evenly divided electorate, the bipartisan consensus on key U.S. foreign policies remains strong. This is especially true on the two major issues of thwarting Russia’s war against Ukraine and countering China’s increasingly aggressive conduct in the world.

In his first two years in office, the Biden administration has helped unify and fortify NATO to stand firm against Russian aggression and give Ukraine the help and weapons it needs to defend itself. Biden has made the largest commitment by the U.S. to contain global warming ever, and he is working at the G-20 summit to stabilize the global economy. He has bolstered resolve among U.S. allies in Asia to counter China and warned Beijing not to attack Taiwan. Overall, he has defended the principle that independent nations have a right to govern themselves and defend their borders from outside aggressors.

With some exceptions, there is still a strong bipartisan consensus among Republicans and Democrats on his foreign policies regarding Russia and China. A recent survey of U.S. public opinion by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that Americans by overwhelming majorities from both parties support continued U.S. economic and military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, and strong bipartisan majorities support sanctioning China and sending weapons to help Taiwan defend itself if China invades Taiwan.

Biden has framed this era as a global battle between democracy and autocracy, and he’s right. The rise of populist leaders, nationalism and authoritarianism is happening in other nations, and this trend is not unique to the U.S. The midterm elections were a hopeful endorsement of the strength of American democracy and its ability to keep defending freedom around the globe.