Experts Warn of Declining Viability for People and Planet’s Future

According to a new report co-authored by over sixty leading natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission and published earlier this month in The Lancet Planetary Health, for Earth to sustain the most basic standard of living for everyone in the future, it is essential that economic systems and technologies undergo significant transformation.

The new research expands upon the "Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries" published in Nature last year, which revealed that many of the critical limits for both human well-being and planetary health have already been exceeded. This latest paper defines the concept of a "Safe and Just Space," where harm to both people and nature can be minimized while ensuring that all individuals' needs are met. It also outlines the strategies necessary to achieve and maintain this sustainable space.

Future projections to 2050 indicate that this "Safe and Just Space" will continue to diminish over time, primarily due to growing inequalities, unless immediate and significant transformations occur. To ensure that everyone is provided for while enabling societies, businesses, and economies to flourish without jeopardizing the planet, it is crucial to address disparities in access to essential Earth system resources, such as freshwater and nutrients, alongside enacting economic and technological changes.

The research highlights that inequalities and the excessive consumption of limited resources by a small fraction of the population are major contributors to this contraction. By meeting the basic resource needs of those currently lacking adequate supplies, the pressure on the Earth system would increase far less than that exerted by the minority who exploit significantly more resources.

“We're beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth. Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature,” said Joyeeta Gupta of Universiteit van Amsterdam. “The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don't have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems which underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.”

The Earth System Boundaries signify the "ceiling" beyond which Earth systems risk becoming unstable and resilient, leading to potentially significant harm to both people and nature. In contrast, the Safe and Just Space serves as a "foundation," delineating the minimum requirements that the global population needs from Earth systems to live a life free from poverty. The area between these two boundaries is replete with opportunities that can be harnessed to secure a brighter future for both humanity and the planet.

To navigate toward this Safe and Just Space, the paper emphasizes the necessity for transformation in three key areas. First, there must be a concerted effort to reform our economic systems, developing new policies and funding mechanisms that tackle inequality while simultaneously alleviating pressures on nature and climate.

Second, it is vital to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of resource management, sharing, and utilization at all societal levels, particularly by addressing the overconsumption of certain communities that restrict access to basic resources for those most in need.

Lastly, investing in sustainable and affordable technologies will be crucial in enabling us to utilize fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for everyone, especially in regions where such space is currently minimal or nonexistent.