Copper Shortages Threaten U.S. Transition to Renewable Energy, Study Finds

A recent study from the University of Michigan reveals a critical obstacle in the United States' shift towards renewable energy: copper shortages. According to the study, current U.S. policy guidelines aimed at transitioning the country's electricity and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy cannot be met due to insufficient copper mining capabilities.

The Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in 2022, mandates that all cars manufactured be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035. However, EVs require three to five times more copper than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Additionally, significant amounts of copper are needed for upgrades to the electric grid to support renewable energy.

"A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery electric Honda Accord needs almost 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and in offshore wind turbines, that amount can more than double," said Adam Simon, U-M professor of earth and environmental studies. "We show in the paper that the amount of copper needed is essentially impossible for mining companies to produce."

The research, conducted by Simon and Cornell University researcher Lawrence Cathles, analyzed 120 years of global data from copper mining companies. They calculated the copper needed for the U.S. to upgrade its electricity infrastructure and vehicle fleet to renewable energy. The findings indicate that the copper demands of renewable energy would surpass current production capabilities.

The study, published by the International Energy Forum and discussed in a webinar titled "Copper mining and vehicle electrification," attributes part of the shortfall to the lengthy permitting process for new mines. On average, it takes about 20 years from discovering a new copper deposit to obtaining the necessary permits to build a mine.

Global copper production, spanning six continents and managed by over 100 companies, has been tracked since 1900. The researchers used this data to model future copper production up to the end of the century. They discovered that from 2018 to 2050, the world will need to mine 115% more copper than has been extracted throughout all of human history up to 2018, just to meet current demands without considering the green energy transition.

To support the electrification of the global vehicle fleet, as many as six new large copper mines must be developed annually for the next several decades. Approximately 40% of the output from these new mines will be needed for electric vehicle-related grid upgrades.

Instead of focusing solely on fully electrifying the U.S. vehicle fleet, the researchers suggest prioritizing the production of hybrid vehicles.

"We are hoping the study gets picked up by policymakers who should consider copper as the limiting factor for the energy transition, and to think about how copper is allocated," Simon said. "We know, for example, that a Toyota Prius actually has a slightly better impact on climate than a Tesla. Instead of producing 20 million electric vehicles in the United States and globally, 100 million battery electric vehicles each year, would it be more feasible to focus on building 20 million hybrid vehicles?"

The study emphasizes that copper is essential for developing countries to build infrastructure, including electric grids for approximately 1 billion people without access to electricity, clean water facilities for about 2 billion people without access to clean water, and sanitation facilities for 4 billion people without access to proper wastewater treatment.