Communicating the Connection Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather

Extreme weather, including heat waves, pose a huge threat to human health and ecosystems. Heat waves are becoming more frequent and severe as global temperatures continue to rise. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important, both for their own protection and to encourage mitigation policies.

A heat wave hit California in early July of 2023 and caused the temperatures in Death Valley National Park to reach above 125 degrees Fahrenheit for nine straight days. In the previous month, there was also a heatwave that occurred in the eastern U.S. stretching from the lower Midwest to northern New England and putting a staggering 100 million people under an excessive heat advisory.

Scientists express concern about these extremes becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. They believe that communicating the connection between climate change and extreme weather is highly important in encouraging climate action.

When the heat wave took place in July 2023, an experiment was conducted by researchers at Yale. Participants were initially informed that climate change made the heat wave five times more likely and were asked about different explanations of the link between climate change and heat waves occurring. The experiment was conducted with 3,902 Americans with the use of Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index which calculates how much more likely a heat wave was caused by climate change. The researchers found that when the magnitudes were expressed as a percentage, it was more effective than a standard heat wave framing. This led to a six-percentage point increase in belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely.

To be more specific, 53% of participants thought climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and 58% saw it as making heat waves in general more likely. This was before being exposed to the attribution message.After participants were exposed to the information, the percentage who believed in a connection between climate change and heat waves significantly increased. When provided with a brief explanation of climate change and its link to extreme weather, most participants acknowledged that climate change is occurring, expressed concern, and supported government action. Remarkably, even discussing the heat wave without directly mentioning climate change was enough to shift their beliefs.

It was a whole different story 17 years ago when Yale researchers conducted their first study. Back then, they found that many people perceived climate change as a problem that was distant in time and space. Participants did not grasp the magnitude of climate change impacts, even though there were already devastating impacts occurring at the time across the United States. Many did not worry about climate change or view it as a high priority.

They also found that one of people’s most trusted sources of information about climate change was meteorologists, which differs greatly from modern conventions. At the time, people would get all of their information from daily broadcasts. This is what sparked a larger project to engage the nation’s weather forecasters as climate communicators. But now the message has cleared up for most of the population with the dire strait we are in.

The more recent study demonstrates there is an urgent need for effective communication about the associated risks of climate change being connected to the increasing frequency and severity of heat waves. The research from Yale proved that providing clear, data driven explanations about the connection between climate change and extreme weather events influences public belief in that link and increases support for action. If we ensure that we keep communicating about climate-related risks in an effective manner, public understanding can be strengthened, and meaningful climate action can be prompted.