China's Misinformation Campaign: Exploiting Maui Wildfires for Political Gain

China's propaganda operations took an alarming turn following the devastating wildfires that swept across Maui last month. Rather than focusing solely on amplifying propaganda to defend its policies as usual, China launched a campaign to spread disinformation, sowing discord in the United States by falsely claiming that the wildfires were the result of a secret "weather weapon" being tested by the United States. This marked a significant shift in China's tactics, and it raised concerns about the use of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), to propagate misinformation.

The campaign, as revealed by researchers from Microsoft, Recorded Future, the RAND Corporation, NewsGuard, and the University of Maryland, involved the dissemination of false posts and manipulated images across various social media platforms. These posts alleged that the wildfires were a deliberate act by American intelligence agencies and the military. In order to add illusion to disinformation, the posts featured photographs that appear to have been generated by AI programs—a disturbing development that enhanced the campaign's apparent authenticity. Posts falsely claimed that MI6, the British foreign intelligence service, had revealed the "amazing truth behind the wildfire." These posts were disseminated across various social media platforms in multiple languages, indicating a global audience was the target.

While the full impact of China's disinformation campaign remains difficult to measure, initial indications suggest that the most outlandish conspiracy theories failed to gain significant traction among social media users. Nonetheless, this effort is a new direction for China's influence operations, which largely took a backseat to Russia’s misinformation and disinformation campaigns surrounding Ukraine and the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections.  

China's willingness to engage in disinformation campaigns targeting natural disasters is a concerning development. In this case, China's state media apparatus echoed Russian themes, including animosity toward the United States, while simultaneously pursuing a distinct disinformation campaign.

But Russia didn’t sit out of this particular disaster just because China got involved. Russia also exploited the Maui wildfires for political gain by spreading posts that criticized U.S. spending on the war in Ukraine, suggesting that the funds would be better utilized for disaster relief at home. Although there is no evidence of direct coordination between China and Russia in these campaigns, their efforts often align, especially when it comes to demonizing the United States.

The convergence of China and Russia's disinformation campaigns suggests a new phase in ongoing disinformation wars that have seized upon every possible technological development, including AI, to enhance their effectiveness. While these campaigns might not have achieved their intended impact in the case of the Maui wildfires, they serve as a warning of the potential for technology to amplify disinformation and sow discord.

If China decides to engage in influence operations during the next U.S. presidential election, as suggested by U.S. intelligence officials, it is likely to aim at diminishing President Biden's standing while raising the profile of former President Donald Trump. “If we look at how other actors [such as Russia[ have done this, they are building capacity. Now they’re building accounts that are covert,” said Clint Watts, the general manager of Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center.

“We’ve always been able to come together in the wake of humanitarian disasters and provide relief in the wake of earthquakes or hurricanes or fires,” said Brad Smith, the vice chairman and president of Microsoft. “And to see this kind of pursuit instead is both, I think deeply disturbing and something that the global community should draw a red line around and put off-limits.” Microsoft unveiled its findings in a hearing before Congress on Tuesday, September 12.

While the immediate impact of China’s misinformation campaign may have been limited, it underscores the need for vigilance and preparedness to combat the evolving landscape of disinformation in an increasingly interconnected world. It is essential for governments, tech companies, and civil society to work together to identify and counter such campaigns to protect the integrity of information and democratic processes.